May 11, 2023

GBPUSD is breaking out of the 1.465 level every week, which will be determined by data this week.

GBPUSD – Weekly Chart

GBPUSD – Weekly Chart

The price of GBPUSD trades at 1.50, and a continuation of the uptrend would target 1.665 versus the US dollar. 

The Bank of England meets again on Thursday, with investors widely expecting the BoE to raise interest rates by 25 basis points from 4.25% to 4.5%. The European and US central banks hiked rates over the last weeks, and the UK is set to follow. Inflation has been more stubborn in the UK and is up near the 10% level. 

Further data on Thursday will show US producer prices rising by 0.3% after an 0.5% drop last month. The US dollar has been under pressure, which may continue if the country’s debt ceiling agreement is not fixed in the coming weeks.

GBPUSD Forecast

The more important data will come on Friday, with UK GDP for the three months to the end of April being released. A year-on-year number of 0.2% growth is expected, down from 0.6% previously. However, analysts expect the UK to escape a recession in the coming year. 

Meanwhile, there are fears for the housing market, with UK house prices rising only 0.1% in April, the smallest increase since December 2012. There were also concerns from the private sector as profit warnings from construction firms and a gloomy outlook from the online estate agent Purplebricks led to sharp falls in their share prices. 

A day before its annual investor meeting, Marshalls, which produces landscaping, building and roofing products, warned that sales had fallen by 14% year on year to £227m in the four months to 30 April. 

Despite some economic gloom, the pound can still move toward the 1.6650 level due to another rate hike and some US debt ceiling fears.

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