Dec 11, 2023

GBPUSD should offer volatility for traders with multiple data sets released this week. 


GBPUSD – Daily Chart 

GBPUSD trades at 1.2546 and will look to test the 1.24 level or the recent 1.27 highs. 

The first release with UK employment figures will be at 3pm HKT on Tuesday. Later that day, the critical US inflation figures will be released. The year-over-year rate is expected to slide to 3.1% from 3.2%. 

The following day at 3pm, HKY will release the UK growth figures for the three months leading up to October. A slight increase of 0.1% is expected after a flat previous reading. A weaker figure could stoke recession fears for the UK economy. 

A Federal Reserve rate decision and press conference will follow at 3am and 3:30am HKT, respectively. 

The Bank of England will follow with its own interest rate decision at 8pm HKT on Thursday, which we retail sales will follow.  

Thursday should provide the big-picture trend and lead to a continuation move into the weekend. 

A closely watched index of private sector activity in the UK returned to growth during November after three months of decline. 

“After three months of continuous contraction, the services sector began to show signs of life,” said John Glen, chief economist at the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply. 

He added: “This could be another signal that this is the start of a more sustainable revival for 2024.” 

Investors will be eager to see what the Fed does on interest rates, with no change in the current level expected this week. Former Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said he does not expect the bank to make any move this week. 

“Eighty percent of people were wrong this year — it’s pretty easy to paint yourself into a narrative corner and really get yourself convinced we were going to have a recession,” said Art Hogan at B. Riley Wealth Management. 

“Economic growth is averaging about 3% this year, compared to 1.8% annualised growth over the last 10 years. “That’s a pretty healthy recession we had in 2023,” joked Hogan.  

Hogan sees a 10% return ahead for the year, but some are more pessimistic. “One should note that virtually all of the stock market’s gains this year came from a small number of tech stocks,” JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan wrote. “The rest of the market was largely in a ‘holding pattern,’ unsure of prospects for the economy. This led to a high concentration of index weight in a handful of the largest stocks, something not seen in 50 years.”

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