Sep 01, 2023

USDCAD will be affected by the release of Canadian GDP and US non-farm payrolls on Friday.

USDCAD Daily Chart

USDCAD: Daily Chart

USDCAD met resistance at 1.3635, which has rejected the dollar twice since May.

Canada’s GDP is anticipated to slow to 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from 3.1% in the third quarter, as the economy is expected to be impacted by weaker global demand and higher interest rates. A Reuters poll of economists predicted a sharp growth slowdown that could lead the Bank of Canada to pause its interest rate hikes despite higher inflation in recent data.

The GDP report will be the last major piece of economic data released before the central bank makes its next policy decision on September 6. The Bank of Canada (BoC) had previously forecast growth of 1.5%. The market would likely see some relief after the latest consumer price index report showed inflation rising above 3% in July, which is still far from the BoC’s 2% target and raises expectations for another rate hike in September. The central bank has said it will study the economic data closely before its next meeting.

“We think this print is very important for the BoC’s decision,” said Carlos Capistran, head of Canada and Mexico economics at Bank of America.

The BoC is data-dependent and may hike rates further. Slowdowns in Q2 could be due to transitory factors.

“If there are clear signs the economy is slowing, that will likely give the BoC comfort that it can hold the line at 5% for now and see more data,” said Benjamin Reitzes at BMO Capital Markets.

Money markets are currently pricing in a 70% probability that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will pause its rate hikes in September, but will resume tightening later in the year, with the policy rate peaking at 5.25% by the end of the cycle.

“If domestic demand still looks too strong, led by a rebound in housing and consumer spending on services, and the July figure points to a decent start to Q3, the BoC may still choose to continue hiking interest rates at the September meeting,” said Andrew Grantham, a senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets.

The United States jobs market is also expected to be in focus, with a projected decrease in jobs added from 187k to 170k. This will also provide the Federal Reserve with a reason to pause its rate hikes.

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