Jun 13, 2024

AUDUSD is looking for a breakout from resistance ahead of critical economic data.


AUDUSD – Daily Chart

The price of the AUDUSD exchange rate surged on Wednesday to test recent resistance near the 0.67 level. Data coming for both currencies on Wednesday will confirm a breakout or correction.

Critical US data will be released ahead of the Asian Open, along with the Fed’s interest rate decision and a press conference. Traders expect no move on rates and will focus on the press conference for clues on the path ahead for US rates. 

The Aussie dollar surged on Wednesday after US inflation came in softer than expected. Although annual inflation was only 0.1% lower than expectations, that lit a fire under global currencies against the greenback. 

The comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could be the factor that decides whether the Australian dollar can continue ahead of current resistance. Traders are currently pricing in a September rate cut in the United States. 

Australian employment figures will follow at 9:30 a.m. HKT. Traders expect a print of 30k jobs added, up from 38.5k last month. The unemployment rate is likely to stay near 4%. 

Data this week showed Australia’s business confidence turned negative and conditions fell below average, hinting that high interest rates continue to pressure consumers. 

“Overall, the message here is a mixed one for the RBA,” NAB analysts said. “There are warning signs on the outlook for growth but at the same time reasons to be very wary about the inflation outlook, and we expect the RBA to keep rates on hold for some time yet as they navigate through these contrasting risks.” 

Despite a weaker economy, traders are still fixated on the rate outlook in the US.

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