Jul 05, 2024

The EURUSD exchange rate tests resistance at 1.0811, the critical job report level.

EURUSD-–-Daily-Chart EURUSD – Daily Chart 

Friday’s June Non-Farm Payrolls number is expected to show an addition of 190k jobs, down from 272k a month earlier. However, the unemployment rate is expected to stay firm at 4% 

Inflation in the Eurozone crept lower to 2.5% in June but remained stuck above the European Central Bank’s target. That figure was down from 2.6% in May, a positive sign as inflation fell from 10.6%, but the ECB will be in no rush to cut rates again.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech earlier this week that the bank needed to ensure inflation was under control before considering another policy move. That came after the bank’s quarter-point cut at its June 6 meeting. 

Lagarde said, “It will take time for us to gather sufficient data to be certain that the risks of above-target inflation have passed.” Uncertainty about growth in the eurozone existed. However, Lagarde noted strength in the jobs market and low unemployment levels as reasons to be patient. 

Meanwhile, in the United States, policymakers are still not looking to budge on rates. 

Speaking at the same event as Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials want to see annual pace closer to its 2% target. 

“We just want to understand that the levels that we’re seeing are a true reading of underlying inflation,” he said. 

Powell warned that getting the timing wrong could reignite inflation rates. 

“Getting the balance on monetary policy right during this critical period — that’s really what I think about in the wee hours,” Powell said. 

There is also talk in the US that President Biden will withdraw from the election race soon after concerns over his performance in a recent TV debate with challenger Donald Trump.

That may not affect the US dollar as his replacement will likely continue his policy stance and heavy spending.

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