Jun 02, 2023

The Hang Seng index is again testing a critical support level from 2016.

HK50 – Weekly Chart

HK50 – Weekly Chart

The price of the HK50 index failed to get above the 22,500 resistance level and now must look for buyers around the 18235 price range. 

Global stock markets have remained weak, with the US debt ceiling drama dragging markets lower. A US debt default was unlikely but would affect all international markets, and politicians will find a way forward.

A slower-than-expected Chinese economic recovery has also put the brakes on world markets. Manufacturing figures for the Chinese economy were not as strong as expected this week and are still stuck in contraction territory. 

Hong Kong futures fell 1.94% on Wednesday but closed at the critical support level. A conclusion to the US debt drama could lead to another push higher from here. 

Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong were also struggling and nearing a bear market. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped this week, with the losses since January 27 reaching 20%.

“China’s domestic recovery just hasn’t been as strong as expected, and not enough to offset worries of a global slowdown,” said Marvin Chen at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Markets may be getting fatigued waiting on catalysts such as monetary easing or thawing in US tensions and are looking elsewhere for growth.”

Data said GDP growth this year would be closer to the government’s target of around 5%, despite earlier hopes for a strong performance. Chinese equities have also been losing favour overseas, with Citigroup cutting its overweight rating on China to neutral on Friday. Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood also reduced his heavy allocation on the market for the second time in two weeks. 

With the bearish mood currently hanging over Chinese stocks, the market could be ripe for a rally. A successful US debt ceiling deal could be a spark that leads to a turnaround in fortunes.

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